A new report from Aurora Energy Research finds that stronger European grid connections could unlock an extra 27TWh of clean power while reducing pollution via grid upgrades. The study, titled “Europe’s Energy Trilemma Rewired,” examines how grid investment could help address Europe’s three central energy priorities: cutting greenhouse gas emissions, securing energy supply chains, and managing costs.
The analysis found that congestion within national grids forced operators to curtail between 5% and 10% of renewable output across parts of Europe in 2024. Modeling by Aurora revealed that the figure could double before the end of the decade in Spain, Italy, Great Britain, and Germany unless grid capacity expands too.
Failing to close that gap would jeopardize climate commitments across the bloc, and policymakers across the region are currently weighing how fast to expand transmission capacity. Central to the findings is the role of cross-border interconnectors, the high-voltage links connecting national power grids.
Aurora estimates that expanding this capacity by 25% would allow an extra 27TWh to be generated from wind and solar sources by 2040. That shift would lower gas-fired output by roughly 35TWh, an 8% cut, while keeping nearly 16.3 million tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
Even with those gains, grid congestion remains a persistent drag on the system today, the report notes. Grid operators across Europe had to manage 72TWh of curtailed power in 2024, with Ireland and Poland among those forced to scale back output.
Both lacked sufficient network capacity to absorb their renewable output, the report said. The report frames this volume as a warning sign of how quickly bottlenecks can erase the value of new clean power capacity.
Inaction carries a cost that compounds over time, the analysis suggests, with congestion expenses set to rise in markets that delay investment. In Great Britain, congestion costs are projected to climb to seven times their current level by 2060 if investment continues to lag behind deployment.
Aurora’s researchers argue that the longer upgrades are delayed, the costlier and more disruptive the eventual transition is likely to become. Frederik Beelitz, who leads advisory work for Aurora Energy Research’s DACH region, said the power grid is vital to Europe’s decarbonization and security goals.
He said investing soon in upgraded transmission and cross-border links could free up more renewable power, bolster electricity reliability, and bring emissions down. Beelitz added that timely spending would also help limit the expenses linked to network bottlenecks and operational waste. He warned that delays would make the energy transition both costlier and harder to achieve.
Hitachi Energy’s European region head Maxine Ghavi said resilient, flexible, and interconnected power networks form the foundation of a secure, affordable supply. Such systems underpin both economic activity and the wellbeing of communities across the region.
Doing so, she said, means deploying relevant technologies quickly and at scale as Europe advances its energy transition. That means balancing the three competing demands of decarbonization, security, and cost that define the energy trilemma.
For companies like Turbo Energy S.A. (NASDAQ: TURB) that are looking to expand their renewable energy footprint across Europe and other international markets, the energy trilemma highlighted in the research done by Aurora presents real challenges that they will have to contend with.
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