The International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook for 2025 presents three divergent energy futures. These scenarios outline paths that range from achieving net zero emissions and limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, to current policies resulting in nearly 3 degrees of warming. All these scenarios start from today’s reality of surging demand and geopolitical tensions, then diverge based on government actions and technology deployment.
Clean energy delivers cheaper systems than fossil fuels. The net zero pathway costs less overall despite requiring higher upfront renewable investments, with savings typically coming from avoided fuel purchases and price volatility protection. Oil importers would see fuel bills drop over two-thirds by 2035 thanks to efficiency improvements and lower prices.
Household expenses would also decline in wealthy nations while staying near current levels elsewhere as efficiency offsets growing consumption. Fossil-heavy paths will be the most expensive due to operating costs and price shock exposure, with oil climbing from $65 per barrel today toward $100 by mid-century.
Renewable expansion continues regardless of individual national policies. Solar and wind represent the fastest-growing sources across all scenarios. Despite American policy reversals slashing clean energy support and eliminating tax credits, the world tracks toward nearly tripling renewable capacity by 2030. China dominates growth, responsible for nearly half to three-fifths of worldwide capacity increases over the next decade. Emerging markets outside China compensate for American slowdowns with 20 percent more electric vehicles by 2035 than previously projected.
Peak demand for oil, coal, and gas approaches within years. The central scenario projects coal and oil peaking around 2030, with gas following by 2035. Global electric vehicle fleets will grow sixfold by 2035, preventing over 10 million barrels daily of oil consumption, with Chinese demand peaking before 2030. Under net zero pathways, no new fossil fuel fields are needed and some existing projects will even close early.
Gas expansion risks creating stranded assets. Central projections show 65 billion cubic meters of excess liquefied natural gas in 2030 as new production floods markets. Many nations skip gas infrastructure entirely, jumping from coal directly to renewables rather than locking into volatile markets. In net zero scenarios, no new gas-fired stations get built and demand drops sharply. Liquefied natural gas facility utilization would fall to 75 percent in 2030 and plummet to 50 percent by 2035.
Universal energy access aligns with climate goals. About 730 million people live without power while almost 2 billion use harmful cooking fuels. Net zero pathways could achieve universal energy access by 2030. While liquid petroleum gas currently dominates clean cooking expansion, electric cooking powered by renewables offers more transformative solutions. Research shows fossil cooking subsidies disproportionately benefit wealthy households while straining budgets.
This analysis shows that accelerating renewable deployment serves multiple policy objectives simultaneously. Whether governments prioritize reducing costs, expanding access, decreasing imports, or preparing for market shifts, rapid clean transitions will deliver benefits. Renewables emerge as both the environmental and economically rational path, particularly for energy-importing nations seeking stability.
As more firms like GeoSolar Technologies Inc. (OTC: GSLR) introduce more innovative renewable energy solutions, the energy transition is likely to accelerate over the coming years around the globe.
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