The first two weeks of fighting in Iran generated over 5 million tons of carbon dioxide, exceeding Iceland’s entire annual emissions, as experts race to quantify how modern warfare accelerates climate change. Calculating exact figures remains difficult, but initial assessments show military fuel consumption dwarfs other sources, with commercial aviation disruptions and long-term reconstruction adding climate damage that will persist for years.
A single F-35 fighter jet burns roughly 5,600 to 6,500 liters of kerosene during a combat sortie lasting 90 minutes to two hours, releasing 14 to 17 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to a conventional passenger car’s lifetime emissions, according to Lennard de Klerk, who heads the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War.
The United States has flown over 8,000 combat missions since late February attacks on Iran, deploying bombers, fighter jets, drones, and support aircraft. Fuel consumption from Israeli and American military operations produces 20 to 30 times more emissions than explosions destroying energy infrastructure, de Klerk notes.
Aviation disruptions further compound immediate climate damage caused by modern warfare. Half a million passengers daily traveled through Gulf hubs before the conflict, with many flights now taking longer routes that burn additional fuel.
Methane and black carbon from targeted storage facilities create additional warming effects. Neta Crawford, who authored research on Pentagon emissions, highlights uncontrolled methane releases from strikes on natural gas facilities that vent directly into the atmosphere without combustion.
Artificial intelligence introduces a new emissions dimension as the Defense Department promises AI-enabled warfare will reshape military operations. Data centers used approximately 1.5% of global electricity in 2024, with AI applications potentially doubling that figure by 2030. Long-term climate impacts extend beyond active combat.
Grace Alexander from the Conflict and Environment Observatory says medium- and long-term effects require time to materialize, pointing to reconstruction emissions that accumulate over years.
Rearmament presents another major emissions source as military spending climbs globally. U.S. military standard operations reached nearly 32 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024 before the current war began. President Trump recently proposed a $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027, substantially higher than the $901 billion approved for 2026.
Energy transition pathways may diverge as natural gas prices climb. Some import-dependent nations could switch to coal or other fossil fuels, locking in high-emission infrastructure. Pakistan and Bangladesh face particular vulnerability, with two-thirds of their liquefied natural gas supplies shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has blocked the passage carrying 20 to 25% of global oil since attacks against the country started in February. However, fossil fuel supply insecurity might motivate other countries to accelerate renewable transitions.
Sebastian Kind, Argentina’s former renewable energy undersecretary, argues that countries further along energy transitions gain greater resilience and sovereignty. Fossil fuel dependency represents not just climate risk but economic burden and national security vulnerability. Technology stands ready and cost-competitive while political will remains missing, though crises like this should provide necessary urgency.
The emissions toll of modern warfare and disruptions to fossil fuel supplies could eventually trigger military planners to add urgency to their efforts to incorporate renewable solutions like those being championed by entities like Vision Marine Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: VMAR) in maritime transport.
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